Two years of full-scale Russian invasion: when will the war in Ukraine end?
Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine continues. Every second, heroic and brave soldiers are fighting for the right to live in a free and independent state. Learn more about how the tragic events have affected the lives of Ukrainians and when the war is expected to end
The full-scale invasion was a difficult and unbearable experience for all Ukrainians. However, the people have withstood and continue to fight, and shock and confusion have been replaced by confidence and faith. The weapons of Ukrainians are the truth, and our truth is that this is our land, our country, our children, and we will defend it to the last.
To mark the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion, we have collected the main events of this bloody war and analysed the moods and expectations of Ukrainians for 2024.
Timeline of russia's military aggression against Ukraine
For 8 years, putin's regime pretended to be a "peacemaker" and a "third party", but the full-scale invasion finally tore this mask off. Since 2014, the occupier has regularly spread disinformation and lies about the "Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics", which in fact were and remain moscow-controlled occupation regimes in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. They tried to convince the world that Ukraine was in a state of civil war.
However, on 24 February 2024, the Ukrainian people demonstrated to the whole world their courage, resilience, bravery and unity in the face of a bloodthirsty enemy. the russian federation is trying not only to seize Ukrainian territories, but also to destroy the statehood and national identity. The ideology of racism completely denies the existence of the Ukrainian nation, and those who disagree with the russian political elite are subject to physical destruction.
vladimir putin is obsessed with the idea of "collecting the native russian lands" and considers russia to be the successor to the soviet empire. In the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, the occupiers are demonstrating true examples of Nazism: mass executions, deportations, torture of civilians, theft of private property, and the desecration of history and culture. The massacres in Bucha, Izyum, and the mass extermination of people in Mariupol have become a clear manifestation of moscow's genocidal policy. The only thing russia is now associated with is atrocities, war crimes and rape.
However, Ukrainians did not surrender in the face of the enemy's invasion, but demonstrated incredible national unity. Ukraine is defending its European choice, national identity and values as part of the European Union. Ukrainians are shedding blood for a free, democratic Europe.
Tragic statistics of russia's armed aggression
The UN has recognised russia's war against Ukraine as the most serious armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. Over the past two years, 9,700 civilians have been killed in Ukraine, 11,000 more have been injured, and almost 7,000 have gone missing. Of course, the actual numbers are much higher, as Ukrainians still do not have access to all mass graves in the occupied territories. According to the UN, 6.3 million Ukrainian refugees are currently seeking refuge abroad.
The tragic news does not stop there. 523 minors have been killed, 1217 wounded, and 2169 missing; 388 of the 19546 deportees to russia have been returned. This is the data of the National Police as of the beginning of February 2024. Almost two-thirds of Ukrainian children have been forced to leave their homes, some without adults. One and a half million children are at risk of post-traumatic stress and other mental disorders. russia has abducted almost 20,000 young Ukrainians. Only about 400 of them have been returned home.
According to the National Police of Ukraine, over the past 2 years, investigators of the National Police of Ukraine have opened 112,703 criminal proceedings on the facts of crimes committed on the territory of Ukraine by members of the russian armed forces and their accomplices. Of these, more than 98,000 are for violations of the laws and customs of war, more than 9,000 for encroachment on the territorial integrity and inviolability of Ukraine, more than 3,500 for collaboration, 86 for sexual violence committed by the russian military, and others.
In the de-occupied territories, National Police officers found 88 places of captivity and torture chambers where russians illegally detained and tortured people: 28 in Kharkiv region; 26 in Zaporizhzhia region; 18 in Kherson region; 5 in Donetsk and Kyiv regions; 2 in Sumy and Mykolaiv regions; and 3 in Chernihiv region.
Will the war end in 2024?
In 2023, 43% of Ukrainians were most inspired and motivated to get through this difficult year by their families and loved ones. The second most common source of inspiration and motivation is the defenders of Ukraine in the Defence Forces (16%).
The war affects the daily lives of the vast majority of the population (95%), 61% of whom say it is a decisive factor. Such assessments are typical for all macro-regions of Ukraine, but most of all for the East, where the war has a dramatic impact on the daily lives of 68% of the population.
The belief in victory continues to unite the vast majority of Ukrainians (88%), with 63% of them believing in victory unequivocally.
Despite the overall deterioration of their lives, Ukrainians continue to personally provide financial and other material support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and internally displaced persons. Thus, 63% say that in the last 12 months they have personally transferred money to volunteers and charities that help the Armed Forces. One in four Ukrainians helped to manufacture supplies for the Armed Forces (weaving nets, repairing vehicles/equipment, 3D printing spare parts for drones).
The leader in terms of positive attitudes of Ukrainians towards neighbouring countries is Poland. Thus, 66% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude towards Poland, while only 8% have a negative attitude, and 22% of citizens are neutral.
The leader of the anti-rating among neighbours (russia was not included in this list) is Belarus. Thus, 78% of Ukrainians currently have a negative attitude towards Belarus.
It is currently very difficult to give a clear prediction about the timing of the end of the war. However, we can consider some of the opinions of leading thinkers, which they shared with Foreign Policy magazine.
For example, the author of the book putin's World. russia and its leader through the eyes of the West believes that "putin is waiting for the US elections and hopes that the next president will abandon support for Ukraine". Angela Stent reports that in the near future the situation will remain dynamic, but without significant changes on the battlefield. First of all, this requires human, technical and financial resources.
Jo Inge Bekkevold, Senior Research Fellow for China at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, expressed the following opinion: "In 2024, we are much closer to a bipolar global division reminiscent of the Cold War than we were two years ago." According to Jo Inge Bekkevold, the war in Ukraine has fostered a Sino-russian embrace, strengthening Beijing's influence over Moscow. And now the latter is much more dependent on the former. At the same time, Washington and Brussels are taking steps to reduce the risks of their close economic ties with China.
Kristi Raik, deputy director of the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia, believes that "moscow can win if the West fails to mobilise the necessary resources and, more importantly, the will". Christy Rike believes that US military aid to Ukraine has already been reduced to a minimum, and the prospect of Trump winning the November elections means that European leaders are facing the most serious strategic challenge to their continent in generations. And if Europe fails to meet this challenge, moscow will be inspired to go further in restoring its sphere of influence and undermining its main enemy, which it has clearly identified as NATO.
Which countries continue to support Ukraine?
Since the start of the full-scale war, about 40 countries have provided Ukraine with military, humanitarian and financial support worth almost $185 billion (€165 billion). The United States and Germany are the largest donors to Ukraine.
The Baltic states and Poland remain the leaders in terms of the share of aid to Ukraine in their GDP. Estonia spent 1.26% of its GDP ($0.54 billion) on assistance to Ukraine, Latvia - 1.09% of its GDP ($0.51 billion), Lithuania - 0.95% of its GDP ($0.76 billion), and Poland - 0.68% of its GDP ($6.21 billion).
As for other European countries that are actively helping Ukraine: France provided $8.11 billion in aid to Ukraine (0.05% of GDP), Italy - $6.28 billion (0.07%), the Netherlands - $7.24 billion (0.44%), Spain - $5.21 billion (0.06% of GDP).
Ukraine is immensely grateful to its allies for their powerful military, political, economic, financial and humanitarian support. However, for the country's ultimate victory, it needs even more consolidated assistance, especially in the military sphere.
Are you planning a trip to Ukraine?
Ukraine is open to foreign tourists and there are no restrictions on entry to the country. The following list of documents is required for visa-free travel:
1. A health insurance policy covering military risks. You can buy a special type of insurance here.
2. Confirmation of the purpose of the trip: a notarised invitation from Ukrainian citizens, travel vouchers, confirmation of accommodation reservations, invitations from companies or organisations, tickets to seminars, exhibitions, fairs, documents on treatment in medical institutions, etc;
3. Proof of financial security: proof that you have sufficient funds for the entire period of your planned stay in Ukraine or transit to a third country;
4. Absence of a ban on entry to Ukraine from an authorised body.
Ukrainians will continue to fight until they liberate the last piece of their native land from the occupier!
Glory to Ukraine! Together to Victory!
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